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Highly Cited Epidemiologist Drastically Changes His Coronavirus Predictions

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who was frequently cited in The New York Times and other left-wing outlets, has now made a huge change to his Imperial College London coronavirus model which originally made outlandish predictions including that 2.2 million would die because of the coronavirus in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K.

Now that it is becoming abundantly clear that Ferguson’s predictions will not become true, he is drastically changing his estimates.






Check out what the Daily Wire reported:

Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself from from its agitation of other ailments.

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.

On Thursday morning, author Alex Berenson shared the huge change on Twitter.

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“This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the [Imperial College] authors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths — and who has now himself tested positive for #COVID,” Berenson started. 

“He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. — more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case [because] they were so old and sick,” he said.

Berenson continued: “Essentially, what has happened is that estimates of the viruses transmissibility have increased — which implies that many more people have already gotten it than we realize — which in turn implies it is less dangerous.”

“Ferguson now predicts that the epidemic in the U.K. will peak and subside within ‘two to three weeks’ — last week’s paper said 18+ months of quarantine would be necessary,” he added.

“One last point here: Ferguson gives the lockdown credit, which is *interesting* — the UK only began [its] lockdown 2 days ago, and the theory is that lockdowns take 2 weeks or more to work,” Berenson said. “Not surprisingly, this testimony has received no attention in the US — I found it only in UK papers. Team Apocalypse is not interested.”

Ferguson’s quick change of thought came shortly after Oxford epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta hammered him for the bogus model.

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“I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” Gupta said.

Check out what the Daily Wire reported:

Professor Gupta led a team of researchers at Oxford in a modeling study which suggests that the virus has been invisibly spreading for at least a month earlier than suspected, concluding that as many as half of the people in the United Kingdom have already been infected by COVID-19.

If her model is accurate, fewer than one in a thousand who’ve been infected with COVID-19 become sick enough to need hospitalization, leaving the vast majority with mild cases or free of symptoms.

In other words, Ferguson’s highly influential initial model was off by orders of magnitude.

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